Changing Demographics in Iraq: Fertility Rates and Migration Trends

@CIG_telegram · @CIG_telegram · 2026-04-09 13:27:02 CEST
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Demographic data from Iraq indicates significant changes in fertility rates among ethnic groups. In 2018, Shia Arabs had a total fertility rate (TFR) of 4.0, Kurds 3.0, and Sunni Arabs 2.9. Post-war estimates suggest current TFRs are Shia Arabs ~3.25, Sunni Arabs ~2.5, and Kurds ~2.75. The 2024 census revealed Shia Arabs have the largest household sizes, while Kurdish regions show a lower percentage of children under 5, indicating aging populations. Kurds are also noted for higher emigration rates to Europe.

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  • First reported: @CIG_telegram
  • Most detailed: @CIG_telegram
  • Total sources: 1
  • Created: 2026-04-09 13:26:56 CEST
  • Updated: 2026-04-09 13:27:02 CEST

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  • @CIG_telegram · 1 messages 📷 2026-04-09T11:25:55+00:00

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@CIG_telegram 2026-04-09T11:25:55+00:00
Outdated but interesting demographic information from Iraq. In 2018 Shia Arab Iraqis has a TFR of ⬆️4.0, Kurds 3.0, & Sunni Arab Iraqis 2.9. Sunni Arab Iraqi TFR cratered during & after war to destroy ISIS in Mosul & other predominately Sunni Arab areas.

Would estimate today that if Iraqi national TFR ~3.0 then Shia Arab has fallen to no more than 3.25, Sunni Arab ~2.5, & Kurdish 2.75 (very high in rural areas & ~2.3 in more urban). Kurds also emigrate to Europe proportionally more than any other major Iraqi group.

2024 census did find Shia Arabs recorded largest average household sizes while Kurdish areas (Erbil, Sulaymaniyah, Duhok) has a significantly lower percentage of children under 5 compared to the national average indicating lower fertility & faster aging. Ditto Sunni Arab areas.

https://amwaj.media/en/article/deep-dive-inside-iraq-s-population-guessing-game
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